Average price hides more than it shows
Average price moves when the mix of what sold changes. A quiet month for detached homes and a busy one for condos drags the average down without a single home losing value. Benchmark or median figures track the typical home far more honestly.
The ratios that actually lead
Sales-to-new-listings tells you who has the leverage: high means sellers, low means buyers. Months of inventory tells you how long it would take to clear the market at the current pace. Both turn before price does, which makes them the ones to watch.
- Sales-to-new-listings above roughly sixty percent favours sellers
- Below about forty percent favours buyers
- Months of inventory rising is the earliest sign of a shift
Toronto is many markets at once
Detached in a west-end pocket and one-bedroom condos downtown can move in opposite directions in the same month. City-wide numbers are an average of markets that do not behave alike. Judge your decision on the segment and neighbourhood you are actually in.
What this means for your own timing
Nobody times the bottom. What you can control is being fully approved so you can move quickly when the right property appears, and having a mortgage structured so a rate change does not force a decision. That is a better use of energy than forecasting.
Frequently asked questions
- Which number should I follow month to month?
- Sales-to-new-listings and months of inventory for your specific property type and area. They shift before prices do.
- Why does average price jump around so much?
- Because it reflects the mix of properties that happened to sell. Benchmark and median prices are far more stable measures.
- Should I wait for prices to drop before buying?
- Carrying cost matters more than the headline price. A lower price at a higher rate can cost more monthly than the reverse.